So let’s talk about 2nm semiconductors and the defense of Taiwan by the United States military. Currently if you weren’t aware there’s something called the Taiwan Relations Act, or TRA, that requires the United States to in essence give Taiwan weapons and prepare the US military for intervention.
To be more specific the TRA requires the United States to have a policy “to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character” and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan“.
So basically we’re on the hook for keeping Taiwan independent. And over the years the United States has done what it’s supposed to do and worked on keeping the island of Taiwan independent of mainland China, for example by approving the sale of some air defenses in the past few months. So that’s great. I’d rather have a free people on Taiwan than have them subjugated by the Chinese Communist Party like on the mainland.
But there are problems with the defense of Taiwan and Taiwan’s defensive strategy and that’s what we’re going to take a moment to talk about.
Currently Taiwan has a policy of keeping advanced, high tech, manufacturing on the island. TSMC is reportedly not allowed to build 2nm fabs outside of Taiwan at the moment. 2nm manufacturing will only come to the United States in 2028 or later. It is thought that this is to encourage the defense of Taiwan by other countries. The assumption being that when other countries see their chip supplies under threat, see TSMC’s fabs under threat, they will act to maintain their semiconductor supplies. It makes some sense. Taiwan does have 40% of the world’s fab capacity and losing that capacity would destroy the entire world’s supply chains. But 2nm fabs will not be the deciding factor in the defense of Taiwan by the United States.
It is not a good strategy to basically hold resources hostage to get what you want. That’s a way to alienate allies, not build trust. Eventually the United States will crack and demand the defense of not Taiwan, but the technology that makes a 2nm fab a 2nm fab. Technology will be safeguarded and in exchange the United States will give Taiwan exactly what it has always given, promises of independence. The Trump Administration will most likely continue the Biden’s Administration’s goal of onshoring semiconductor manufacturing.
The problems don’t stop at technological hostages though…
We just had an election. Donald Trump is now the President Elect. And the future Trump Administration may very well abandon the defense of Taiwan because it’s a “bad deal”. While the defense of Taiwan is law, law no longer matters. Not to a Trump Administration and a Republican held Senate. The law can be wiped from the books at any time. The populace of America will scream with joy as Donald Trump, their savior from World War III, pulls all support from Taiwan and tells Xi Jinping to do what he wants with it. Sounds ridiculous, but ridiculous is now reality. Get used to it.
But ultimately if Taiwan gives the Trump Administration endless concessions the Taiwan Relations Act may stay in place. I imagine Taiwan cracking and giving up technology and other concessions will do the trick. 2nm manufacturing may come to the United States faster than the planned 2028+ timeline. That would be a positive and real achievement. But who knows! The point is Taiwan’s official defense by the United States is not as solid as people think.
But then we have military, not just political, problems with the defense of Taiwan. The United States CANNOT defend Taiwan regardless of how people may feel about the matter.
In an invasion of Taiwan, the United States will expend large numbers of high end munitions and aircraft in the beginning of the conflict. Taiwan will do the same. We do not have replacements for those munitions and will quickly become impotent. We also do not have large numbers of ground troops that can safely reach the island in the opening moments of an invasion. Because remember there aren’t really any troops on the island at the moment. The U.S. has maintained no official military presence on Taiwan since it pulled out in 1979.
So that means there will be next to no US ground troops and only 180,000 Taiwanese active personnel across all of its services. Taiwan will attempt to mobilize its 1,600,000 reserves but there is no way it will be able to in time to be decisive. In contrast, China has TWO MILLION active personnel. Basically the United States will rely heavily on aircraft and long range strike options to attempt to defend the island in the opening days of conflict.
In a conflict with China, China would ultimately have air superiority due to a combination of numbers, technological parity, and partially due to location. One hour to get an aircraft on station is pretty meaningful when it takes your opponent four hours. China has that advantage.
And it would not make sense to try and get troops from Korea or Japan to the island. It would take a significant amount of time and would be high risk due to China more likely than not creating a large area of denial covering more than the island of Taiwan. On top of that in an invasion China will be more willing to expend troops than the United States is. For China, human beings are expendable. That’s another advantage over the US. Ground combat for US troops may not even occur on the island.
About that area of denial, China will only invade if it can maintain air and naval superiority. China will not bother with an invasion / blockade unless it can create an area of denial surrounding the island safely. The Chinese Communist Party wants to win and that’s the way to do it. There’s a reason they’re building a large blue water navy and rapidly advancing their air force to technological parity with the United States.
China will be finished absorbing Taiwan before the United States has a comprehensive response. On top of that Americans assumption that China will engage in other theaters simply because the United States is supporting Taiwan is mistaken. China will hold all US assets under threat but will not engage unless specific unknown Chinese Communist Party criteria is achieved. Which is the idea. It’s not easy to deal with Chinese assets all over the place that may or may not attack. China gets to be the pace setter, with the United States forced to respond.
That’s is another advantage for the Chinese Communist Party. China has a clear goal and a clear way to achieve that goal. The United States on the other hand has to plan for endless contingencies, endless plans, and somehow defend the island of Taiwan from the unknown. It’s ridiculously hard and the United States military is currently not as effective as it could be.
The conception of the US military as a supreme deterrent to China is wrong.
We could have 200 F-35s in theater and it wouldn’t be enough. Because of something people keep forgetting to factor in… Time. Time is on China’s side. Every single day the Chinese Navy and Air Force get better and better. All while the United States military continues to flail around, buying exquisite weapons, and failing to create effective plans. Those 200 F-35s are going to do sortie after sortie to only find more and more anti aircraft missiles up their butts because China has over time figured out how to target them. Time is another advantage for China.
So China has military size, time, geography, and planning on its side. It’s not looking good for Taiwan and its defense.
This article isn’t even close to comprehensive. I have no idea why anyone even wants to have an argument about this. China is going to get Taiwan back, it has everything it needs to do so, the United States is almost impotent, the supply of semiconductors to the entire world is under threat, and every country needs to adopt technological nationalism in response. That’s the basic outline here.
We cannot continue like everything is fine. Technological supremacy is the only way to maintain the freedom of Taiwan and we’re failing to achieve it fast enough.
So time is on China’s side.