Is Pikachu ex 238 from Surging Sparks actually rare? Yes and no.
The pull rate given by TCGPlayer is a 0.10% chance to get a specific card… so to specifically get a Pikachu ex 238 you have a itty bitty tiny percent chance. So when you see endless posts on Reddit showing Pikachu off what you’re seeing are the “winners”. What you aren’t seeing is all the “losers” that opened 500 packs and got nothing. All of those Reddit posts about pulling Pikachu don’t actually add up to that many cards in the grand scheme of things. It is actually a rare card.
Anecdotally though the Pikachu ex 238 card is not worth what people are paying. There are enough of them being pulled that you’d expect the price to moderate. And yet Pikachu 238 in PSA 10 is selling for $1700. That is ridiculous. Every day we’ve got people pulling more and more Pikachus and more and more are coming back from PSA… you’d think that people would price this inevitable supply in because all it’d take is some patience to get a much cheaper card.
But no, we’re doing the hype thing. Pikachu ex 238 is hyped to death and we’re just going to have to deal with it. You should always buy singles but at this price I’d say screw it and buy booster packs and have the fun of gambling to get it.
And that’s what this all really is, fun shiny cardboard gambling. So don’t feel like you’re missing out on Pikachu 238 and spend a ridiculous amount of money to get it. It’s rare but it’s not worth the hit to your wallet.