Taiwan is to get new air defenses courtesy of the United States sometime in the future. Good for Taiwan!
Taiwan is lining up to become the next customer for the combat-proven National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) air defense system after the United States approved its sale to the country. The introduction of the system would be a considerable boost to Taiwan as it seeks to bolster its air defenses in the face of the growing and increasingly advanced nature of the threat posed by Chinese aircraft, missiles, and drones.
As is typically the case for major U.S. arms sales, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced the State Department’s approval of the NASAMS package for Taiwan last week. The possible Foreign Military Sale could be valued at up to $1.16 billion. The proposed deal consists of three NASAMS systems, each of which includes an AN/MPQ-64F1 Sentinel radar. Other related hardware comprises an undisclosed number of fire distribution centers (FDC), canister launcher systems (CLS), electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) systems, and tactical control center (TCC) systems.
https://www.twz.com/air/battle-proven-nasams-air-defense-systems-approved-for-taiwan?s=03
While it’s nice that Taiwan’s air defenses are being increased, it is not enough to stop a Chinese invasion or blockade of the island. It definitely is not enough to protect semiconductor fabs as well, ensuring semiconductor supply to the rest of the world. NASAMS is a powerful and yet simultaneously small deterrent at best to China. It is only one of a number of defenses of course but you have to remember just how large the Chinese military is. Everyday the Chinese military marches forward on building up its forces and technologies. Enforcing a blockade of Taiwan becomes easier and easier.
NASAMS will have a supply of 123 AMRAAM-ER missiles, which is an extended range version of AMRAAM. NASAMS can use both AMRAAM and AMRAAM-ER. Meaning that the current stock of AMRAAM missiles Taiwan posses can supposedly be utilized in the air defense systems.
It should be noted that Taiwan only has 300 to 400 AMRAAMS (that we know about) which is wildly insufficient for a conflict with China. As mentioned in a previous article high end munitions will be expended very quickly in a hot and fast conflict. And if you weren’t aware, one missile does not equal one kill. So it’s not like we’re talking about Taiwan having the ability to shoot down 400 aircraft with the missiles it has. Those missiles will be burnt through pretty quickly trying to take down the first waves of Chinese aircraft.
Taiwan seems to be trying to implement a “porcupine” defense… A defense where you advertise that you will cause your attacker pain if they try something and will actually cause that promised pain if they do attack. “try to eat me and your face will be filled with quills”
At the end of the day, NASAMS adds a few quills to Taiwan’s porcupine defense but will not ultimately stop China from imposing a blockade or invasion of Taiwan and destroying the supply of semiconductors to the rest of the world.
China wants those fabs, it wants Taiwan’s technologies, and it will ultimately get them once a blockade or invasion is finished. An example from the past, as Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists retreated from mainland China to Taiwan they largely left China’s manufacturing capacity intact and mainly focused on moving some electronics production to the island. The Communists took over this manufacturing capacity and employees eventually came to work just like normal. This is absolutely how it would play out in a conflict for Taiwan. China will get the losers manufacturing capacity again and employees will show up for work regardless of who is in power. Those fabs will be humming, with processors flying out the door, and all of China will experience a leap forward in its technology.
Taiwan has over 40% of the entire world’s foundry capacity, a blockade or invasion will destroy the entire world’s supply chains. One of the world’s most advanced fabs is going to be built there. The world relies on Taiwan for all kinds of semiconductors, not just the ones that go in your computer. It gets worse when you realize a huge proportion of the electronics sold in the United States are manufactured / assembled in China. Everything we rely on in our daily digital lives seems to be touched at some point by Taiwan and China. A war would ultimately destroy the world economy.
Do you really find this situation acceptable?