So it seems Taiwan wants to please Donald Trump with a large weapons order. Which is downright sad. We now live in a world where countries have to bribe the United States to be bound by its own laws (TRA, Taiwan Relations Act). The United States is bound by law to provide resources for Taiwan’s defense and to plan for the defense of Taiwan.
Taiwan seems to sense what I’ve been sensing, that the Trump Administration will either ignore or abandon the defense of Taiwan because it’s a “bad deal” and Donald Trump hates bad deals. With a compliant Congress and Trump’s love for Xi Jinping this is a very real possibility. And MAGA bros do hate other countries in general so Donald Trump would be playing to his base.
What’s interesting about the rumored weapons package is the focus on exquisite weapon systems. That is weapons which are very expensive and low quantity because they’re… exquisite. They also want weapon systems that I honestly don’t believe they will ever get, that being the F-35.
People familiar with the discussions said Taiwan could request as many as 60 F-35 fighters, four Advanced Hawkeyes, 10 retired warships and 400 Patriot missiles — a package that Su estimated would be worth more than $15bn.
https://www.ft.com/content/7b218d0f-31dc-4b74-b993-797388767b85
The F-35 program has 19 program participants but the thing is they’re all long term allies of the United States and support a world order based upon freedom. The United States could certainly allow Taiwan to participate in the program, there’s nothing that can really stop Donald Trump and Congress. So it’s in theory possible to sell F-35s to Taiwan… but uh… is that really what the United States wants? To have high end, sensitive, aircraft directly next to China? Where China can explore the aircraft’s radar signature? Where China can use its moles in the Taiwanese armed forces to gather data on the F-35? I don’t think so. I would hope not. It just shouldn’t happen.
But it very well may happen. A Republican Congress may beat the war drums and give Taiwan F-35s regardless of how enraged China would be by that move. And if it’s enough money, if the deal is “good”, the Trump Administration won’t have anything negative to say. It’s possible the United States may give away one of its technological advantages to China in exchange for some Taiwanese cash. China will be quietly saying “thank you very much” the second Taiwan’s F-35s hit tarmac on the island.
The Biden Administration however had been encouraging less exquisite military gear for the island of Taiwan.
The Biden administration approved deals worth $7bn. It tried to force Taipei to allocate its limited defence budget differently and prioritise stockpiling munitions and other cheaper, mobile weapons suitable for attacking a superior invader over buying traditional big-ticket systems.
No F-35s there. But the Biden Administration was completely right to focus on stockpiling munitions and preparing for an invasion by a superior military. China has TEN TIMES as many active personnel than Taiwan does. And with the rapid technological advancements China has been making, China may have absolute superiority over the island of Taiwan in a handful of years.
Patriot missiles are definitely something we should be paying attention to. Taiwan wants 400 patriot missiles and with the addition of AMRAAM missiles and launchers that have been approved for the island Taiwan may be able to deny airspace to China over a significant area of the island. That would be a very positive development. Patriots need deep reserves of missiles to maintain deterrence and area denial. I mean, if you have nothing to shoot… you’re really not doing anyone any good.
But you know what, exquisite weapons won’t keep Taiwan’s fabs protected. And that’s a very real goal for the United States and the world in general. Exquisite weapons are vulnerable to overwhelming force which is now achievable by relatively low end weapon systems (see Ukraine and drones). An F-35 won’t do anyone any good when China might have a stealthy disposable drone that can shoot down or even ram into the damn thing. Which is very possible. China has focused on drone technology to a degree America has not and the public is not aware of all the different programs / end products of their research.
With over 40% of the world’s fab capacity there can be no risk taking when it comes to the defense of Taiwan. Taiwan needs weapons and good military planning on the part of the United States. The entire world depends on their defense. The destruction of supply chains world wide by an invasion or blockade of the island of Taiwan would be devastating to the world economy. Not to mention electronics from China would no longer be available to consumers. I mean just think about how devastating a conflict would be. No electronics for sale in the United States and no chips to build them with anyway.
Taiwan is home to maybe 200 fabrication plants and all of them are at risk. What’s worse is they aren’t just at risk because of China, they’re also at risk because of earthquakes. The concentration of fabs is unacceptable and the thing is no matter how many weapons we give Taiwan the threat of a Chinese invasion or blockade remains. The CHIPS Act addresses this overreliance on Taiwan to a degree but there’s a real need for a CHIPS Act II to deepen the semiconductor ecosystem and hopefully if we’re dreaming big… a CHIPS Act III to stimulate an electronics industry that is detached from China.
The world is over reliant on China and Taiwan and the United States is right in the middle of a future conflict that could destabilize the entire world. F-35s, Hawkeyes, and ships won’t save Taiwan. The United States won’t be able to save Taiwan. Fabs are under threat. We just aren’t winning this war.